Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis - стр. 21

http://nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

Dow – Dow-Jones Index

СRB (CCI) – Commodity Research Bureau (Continuous Commodity Index). An index of commodity prices. This indicator is based on statistical concepts.

CPI – Consumer Price Index, an index of consumer prices, also an index of inflation – a type of index of prices designed to gauge the average level of prices for certain goods and services (a consumer basket) for a certain period in the economy. The consumer price index determines the change in the level of various prices for a “fixed basket” of goods and services. Prices of imported goods and services are included in the calculation of the index. The consumer price index is the main indicator of a country’s level of inflation.

We first turn our attention to the change in the CPI. To interpret it, we need to refer to the conclusion we reached previously – hundreds of years ago, a few years of the sun heating up people’s psyches were required for hysteroid reactions to begin to actively appear in social processes. Currently the effect of the sun on people has become more indirect. This is due to a number of causes: the fact that the sun shone more intensively in the previous cycle, and that we became more emotional in this cycle of development, and that people more often began to work at professional types of activity that were more related to the development of the mechanism for opening and closing the circuits of nervous impulses. It was also related to other factors. We can similarly notice that the effect of the sun on people will also depend on the leading psychotype of the elite, of the population. In a period when resonators are dominant, the effect of the sun on their psyches will be smaller, since the mentality of such people is less emotionalized.

In a period when the values and culture of the hysteroids dominate, the influence of the sun will be more direct and stronger.

Peak prices of the consumer basket occurred in 1812, 1862, 1917, and 1979. This occurred worldwide. But we know that the development of the world economy in these years was by and large the development of the US economy.

So, there are peak values of the consumer basket, there are peaks of solar activity, and there are transient increases in the Wolf number of sunspots. We summarize these data in the table.

For a base we will take the well-known tables of solar activity (see L.V. Konstantinovskaya. http://www.astronom2000.info).

The rank correlation coefficient between the amount of change in CPI at maxima and the number of Wolf spots equals 0.56. The corresponding coefficient of determination is 0.31. This suggests that the increase in the price of the consumer basket at points of change in the trendline of its value before the beginning of a price decline of less than a third is statistically related to, or simply coincides with the activity of the sun.