Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis - стр. 22

The range correlation coefficient between the amount of change in the CPI at minima and the number of Wolf sunspots is -0.43. That is, a flex point in the trendline of change in the CPI at the minimum occurred more often at the same time as the maximum solar activity. But this correlation is not as close as with maximum values of the CPI. The value of the determination coefficient confirms that solar activity is only 20% correlated to, or statistically coincides with the fall in the cost of the consumer basket at turning points.

However, in both the first and second cases, this is not a random relationship.

With a random correlation of these factors at minima of values of the CPI, the average number of sunspots was the mean over all these years. This number varies depending on the century and decade. In the nineteenth century, on average there were 42 Wolf spots per year, while in the twentieth century, there were 61. For two centuries on average this was a little more than 50 spots. But the average time that peaks of solar activity preceded the peak values of the CPI index over the two centuries was around 5.5 years.

Of course, here there is much that is misleading. All these calculations have been done technically, as though they were beyond qualitative analysis. Thus, in 1908, the peak CPI value was right behind that of 1907, when the number of sun spots was 62. But for 1905 we calculated a maximum of 63.5 sunspots. However this “deception” is not in support of evidence of a connection of solar activity with psychoeconomic processes on earth, but conversely. This is a purely statistical calculation. Nevertheless, it is clear that in some cases the connection between the sun’s magnetic radiation and people’s behavior on earth can begin, and actually does begin, before the onset of a peak of solar activity, and is influenced by the ascending trendline of prior years. But even with this calculation it is possible to confirm that the most important peaks of CPI values are related to peaks of solar activity. Minimal values have a weaker connection. Only in the twentieth century did the cycles of minimal CPI values start to approximate cycles of solar activity.

Maximum CPI values are directly related to peaks of solar activity. And this holds even if you calculate it over two centuries.

If we then begin calculations from the point of active development of capitalism, throwing out the values prior to 1860, then this relationship is very immediate and direct. Is this randomness or not?