Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis - стр. 18

Our unconscious senses the incorrectness, the imprecision, the one-sidedness of the conclusions reached by consciousness, and it builds up a need to make these conclusions precise, including by denying their opposite. In its own way, this mechanism is rational, and at times it is astonishing in its precision, prognostic ability, and accuracy. The fact is, our consciousness is single-plane and factorial. By and large the determinants of socioeconomic development have a heterogeneous, multifactorial, and cumulative nature. Some microfactors have a tendency to escalate into factorial, leading causes, so it is periodically necessary to change opinions, outlooks, and mindsets. This change is cyclical and tied closely to solar activity. The mechanism that opens and closes nerve cells works better precisely at times of increased solar activity, and this is valid for everyone. Therefore, during periods of economic globalization we also get harmonic curves of change across very different economic indicators.

In a period of increased solar activity, human thought and the thoughts of market players change more often. At times, this takes the form of projection in regard to understanding the factors of economic development, while at others, it takes the form of a sharp shift in management decisions, namely those that can affect the condition of the market.

Therefore it is not accidental that the rate of change in the value of a market basket of consumer goods rises and falls or that the price of housing relative to the price of gold grows then declines, etc. At some point, it becomes clear that the value of the market basket is such that you have to produce more goods from this basket and to obtain higher than average profit in market terms. But as time passes, it turns out that the normal profit for production of goods from the basket of consumer goods has dropped below a psychologically justified level. Once more the opinion forms that it is better to obtain a profit in the financial sphere, in the stock market, in the area of trade etc. All of this is established based on economic calculations… However, before the beginning of high solar activity, less attention is at times paid to this, in view of the rigidity of reasoning and inadequately active functioning of the open-close mechanism of nervous impulses.

There are other periods of pendulous swings of opinion among the agents of economic activity. These periods are smaller than the period between the peaks of solar radiation. Large, global periods of change in opinion co-exist with the oscillating change of opinion for minimal time intervals – months, weeks, days, hours, minutes… The more indefinite the condition of the market, the smaller the time intervals in which changing occurs from one type of decision to the opposite one.