Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis - стр. 26
When analyzing Kondratiev cycles and their dependence on solar activity earlier, we concluded that for each psychotype of the economically active population two peaks of solar activity elapse. At one peak this psychotype comes to dominate the economy, and at the other occurs the preparation for his departure from making primary economic decisions. At a third peak, the next psychotype comes into dominance. And so forth. We should not forget that this applies to countries with endogenous developmental factors.
More time is needed for “warming up” resonators than for the emotional “jerking up” of the post-postresonators. Solar activity itself changes from century to century. Historical conditions of development change. The most important of these is the development of workforce productivity, the intensification of the social division of labor. Hence the variability of cycles is a regular psychoeconomic phenomenon.
When power belongs to the hysteroids, in countries that were centers of economic development, that is, those that developed under the influence of more endogenous factors than exogenous, social stratification grows, and an elite with hysteroid traces exploit the people in various ways. This may include raising prices of the consumer basket.
The US was already such a country in the nineteenth century. In previously enumerated accounts, 1868 was a base year for resonators coming to power in the US, for their most vigorous activity (1870 saw a peak in the number of Wolf sunspots, 139!). These were the first elections after then end of the Civil War. Twenty-four years pass for the years of resonator dominance. Starting in 1868, the price of the world consumer basket gradually fell, by almost 10%. The minimal value of the CPI occurred in 1878. Given the dominance of the resonators, the next peak of solar activity in 1883 was not so tightly bound to the rise of the cost of the consumer basket. Nevertheless the trend for a decline in the value of the CPI was disturbed. The resonators had already begun to lose their power, their influence on the society and economy.
The peak of solar activity that is connected with the ascension to power of the postresonators occurred in 1892-1895. In 1893, there were 85 Wolf sunspots. In the period of dominance of the postresonators, the price of the consumer basket swings slowly toward growth. In 1905, the price of the consumer basket again races ahead (a peak of solar activity), but then again falls. The years 1905-1907 were peaks of solar activity that removed the postresonators from the historical arena. But with the arrival of the time and culture of the post-postresonators, the price of the consumer basket grew vigorously. In their period, there occur the tempestuous Twenties of the twentieth century in the USA, the bulging of the financial market, and so on. That is, everything that led to the crisis of 1928-1939. 1917 brought increased solar activity (104 spots) to the benefit of the postpostresonators. But in 1928-1930, with a new cycle of solar activity (in 1928 there were 77 spots), “no” was said to a culture of psychoeconomic behavior of people with increased emotionality.