Economic crisis: Cosmos and people - стр. 27

Taking oath on the 4^>th of March, 1933, Roosevelt said, "… the only thing to fear is fear itself, irrational, faceless, unjustified terror which paralyzes the efforts required to convert retreat in the offensive." And there was a joke about Roosevelt in those days, that his analyst was God himself.

We must note that the fear and panic coexisted with high spirits and confidence that everything will be great after a while. That is how people in that period of uncertainty and stress added more hormones that caused optimism, while others increased the amount of hormones that caused fear. Let us confirm this fact by the quotes of experts and market participants.

"It is time to buy stocks. Now anyone in America who stands for decrease will lose their money. Perhaps in a few days the bear panic will take place rather than a bull panic. Likely, there will be no such low prices for many of those shares that are being sold so hysterically" (JP. Morgan, "New York Herald Tribune", October 30, 1929). "You should buy a reliable, proven promotion and you will not regret it" (Bulletin analyst E. A Pierce, "New York Herald Tribune", October 30, 1929). "There are intelligent people who are now buying stocks … Unless there is a panic, and no one seriously believes in it, stocks will not fall down" (Financial Analyst R. McNeil, October 1929).

Optimism and pessimism as well as fear and bravado coexisted in different people and even in each person they interchanged depending on the situation. The behavior of people became emotional, irrational. And at the same time it was different. But gradually pessimism won. If we burn most of the hormones, the body starts to save them, forcing people to reduce activity. The mental state also changes.

Of course, the victory of pessimism resulted in increased number of market participants. With the growing number of participants in the determination of behavior, he psychology of crowds starts dominating, increasing the role of suggestion and unconscious components of the collective psyche. Mood hesitations during this period often lead to madness even those people who are most prone to mental disorders.

But if the voice of reason could be deafened, then the feast during the plague could continue. And what could deafen the reasonable view of the state of the market? When there is a lot of serotonin and adrenaline in blood, the reasonable view is unlikely. When hormones are missing, the blues will come itself. When hormones are normal, just thinking often helps, although sometimes psychotherapist is useful.