Законы эпидемий. Как развиваются и почему прекращаются эпидемии болезней, финансовые кризисы, вспышки насилия и модные тренды

История пандемии 1918 года: Barry J.M., ‘The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications’ Journal of Translational Medicine, 2004; Johnson N.P.A.S. and Mueller J., ‘Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” Influenza Pandemic’ Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 2002; World War One casualty and death tables. PBS, Oct 2016. https://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/henson/188/WWI_Casualties%20and%20Deaths%20%20PBS.html. Стоит отметить, что недавно появились новые теории происхождения пандемии гриппа 1918 года, согласно которым она началась раньше, чем принято считать. Например, Branswell H., ‘A shot-inthe-dark email leads to a century-old family treasure – and hope of cracking a deadly flu’s secret’, STAT News, 2018.

Примеры цитирования в средствах массовой информации: Gerstel J., ‘Uncertainty over H1N1 warranted, experts say’ Toronto Star, 9 October 2009; Osterholm M.T., ‘Making sense of the H1N1 pandemic: What’s going on?’ Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, 2009.

Eames K.T.D. et al., ‘Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza’, PLOS Computational Biology, 2012; Health Protection Agency, ‘Epidemiological report of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in the UK’, 2010.

Другие группы исследователей пришли к такому же выводу, например: WHO Ebola Response Team, ‘Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa – The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections’, The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 2014.

‘Ransomware cyber-attack: Who has been hardest hit?’, BBC News Online, 15 May 2017; ‘What you need to know about the WannaCry Ransomware’, Symantec Blogs, 23 October 2017. Число попыток взлома за семь часов увеличилось с 2000 до 80 000; отсюда время удвоения = 7/log_>2(80000/2000) = 1,32 часа.

Media Metrics #6: The Video Revolution. The Progress & Freedom Foundation Blog, 2 March 2008. http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/03/print/005037.html. Количество владельцев увеличилось с 2,2 % домохозяйств в 1981 году до 18 % в 1985 году; отсюда время удвоения = 365 × 4/log_>2(0,18/0,02) = 481 день.

Etymologia: influenza. Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(1): 179, 2006.

Александр Дюма, «Граф Монте-Кристо», глава 117.

Kucharski A.J. et al., ‘Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji’, eLIFE, 2018.

Pastula D.M. et al., ‘Investigation of a Guillain-Barré syndrome cluster in the Republic of Fiji’, Journal of the Neurological Sciences, 2017; Musso D. et al., ‘Rapid spread of emerging Zika virus in the Pacific area’, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2014; Sejvar J.J. et al., ‘Population incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis’, Neuroepidemiology, 2011.

Willison H.J. et al., ‘Guillain-Barré syndrome’, The Lancet, 2016.

Kron J., ‘In a Remote Ugandan Lab, Encounters With the Zika Virus and Mosquitoes Decades Ago’, New York Times, 5 April 2016.

Amorim M. and Melo A.N., ‘Revisiting head circumference of Brazilian newborns in public and private maternity hospitals’, Arquivos de Neuro-Psiquiatria, 2017.

World Health Organization, ‘WHO statement on the first meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR 2005) Emergency Committee on Zika virus and observed increase in neurological disorders and neonatal malformations’, 2016.

Rasmussen S.A. et al., ‘Zika Virus and Birth Defects – Reviewing the Evidence for Causality’, NEJM, 2016.

Rodrigues L.C., ‘Microcephaly and Zika virus infection’, The Lancet, 2016.

Если не указано иное, вся информация из Ross R., The Prevention of Malaria (New York, 1910); Ross R., Memoirs, With a Full Account of the Great Malaria Problem and its Solution (London, 1923).

Barnes J., The Beginnings Of The Cinema In England, 1894–1901: Volume 1: 1894–1896 (University of Exeter Press, 2015).

Joy D.A. et al., ‘Early origin and recent expansion of Plasmodium falciparum’, Science, 2003.

Mason-Bahr P., ‘The Jubilee of Sir Patrick Manson: A Tribute to his Work on the Malaria Problem’, Postgraduate Medical Journal, 1938.

To K.W.K. and Yuen K.-Y., ‘In memory of Patrick Manson, founding father of tropical medicine and the discovery of vectorborne infections’ Emerging Microbes and Infections, 2012.

Burton R., First Footsteps in East Africa (London, 1856).

Hsu E., ‘Reflections on the “discovery” of the antimalarial qinghao’, British Journal of Clinical Pharmacololgy, 2006.

Sallares R., Malaria and Rome: A History of Malaria in Ancient Italy (Oxford University Press, 2002).

Росс утверждал, что участники эксперимента знали, на что идут, и что риск был оправдан: «Думаю, что этот эксперимент оправдан тем огромным значением, которое имел бы положительный результат, а также тем обстоятельством, что в моем распоряжении всегда был хинин» (Ross, 1923). Тем не менее мы не знаем, насколько полно участники эксперимента были информированы о риске; хинин менее эффективен, чем препараты, используемые в современных исследованиях малярии. (Achan J. et al., ‘Quinine, an old anti-malarial drug in a modern world: role in the treatment of malaria’ Malaria Journal, 2011.) Более подробно этичность экспериментов на людях мы рассмотрим в главе 7.

Bhattacharya S. et al., ‘Ronald Ross: Known scientist, unknown man’, Science and Culture, 2010.

Chernin E., ‘Sir Ronald Ross vs. Sir Patrick Manson: A Matter of Libel’, Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences, 1988.

Manson-Bahr P., History Of The School Of Tropical Medicine In London, 1899–1949 (London, 1956).

Reiter P., ‘From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age’, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.

High R., ‘The Panama Canal – the American Canal Construction’, International Construction, October 2008.

Griffing S.M. et al., ‘A historical perspective on malaria control in Brazil’, Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2015.

Jorland G. et al., Body Counts: Medical Quantification in Historical and Sociological Perspectives (McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2005).

Fine P.E.M., ‘John Brownlee and the Measurement of Infectiousness: An Historical Study in Epidemic Theory’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 1979.

Fine P.E.M., ‘Ross’s a priori Pathometry – a Perspective’, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.

Ross R., ‘The Mathematics of Malaria’, The British Medical Journal, 1911.

Reiter P., ‘From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age’, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.

Биографические данные Маккендрика взяты из Gani J., ‘Anderson Gray McKendrick’, StatProb: The Encyclopedia Sponsored by Statistics and Probability Societies.

Письмо GB 0809 Ross/106/28/60. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. © Ross Family.

Письмо GB 0809 Ross/106/28/112. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. © Ross Family.

Heesterbeek J.A., ‘A Brief History of R0 and a Recipe for its Calculation’, Acta Biotheoretica, 2002.

Биографические данные Кермака взяты из Davidson J.N., ‘William Ogilvy Kermack’, Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, 1971; Coutinho S.C., ‘A lost chapter in the pre-history of algebraic analysis: Whittaker on contact transformations’, Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 2010.

Kermack W.O. and McKendrick A.G., ‘A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics’, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 1927.

Fine P.E.M., ‘Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice’, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993; Farewell V. and Johnson T., ‘Major Greenwood (1880–1949): a biographical and bibliographical study’, Statistics in Medicine, 2015.

Dudley S.F., ‘Herds and Individuals’, Public Health, 1928.

Hendrix K.S. et al., ‘Ethics and Childhood Vaccination Policy in the United States’, American Journal of Public Health, 2016.

Fine P.E.M., ‘Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice’, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993.

Duffy M.R. et al., ‘Zika Virus Outbreak on Yap Island, Federated States of Micronesia’ NEJM, 2009.

Mallet H.-P. et al., ‘Bilan de l’épidémie à virus Zika survenue en Polynésie française, 2013–2014’, Bulletin d’information sanitaires, épidémiologiques et statistiques, 2015.

Cao-Lormeau V.M. et al., ‘Guillain-Barré Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a casecontrol study’, The Lancet, 2016.

Stoddard S.T. et al., ‘House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission’, PNAS, 2012.

Kucharski A.J. et al., ‘Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–2014 French Polynesia Outbreak’, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2016.

Faria N.R. et al., ‘Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings’, Science, 2016.

Andronico A. et al., ‘Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique’, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017.

Rozé B. et al., ‘Guillain-Barré Syndrome Associated With Zika Virus Infection in Martinique in 2016: A Prospective Study’, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2017.

Fine P.E.M., ‘Ross’s a priori Pathometry – a Perspective’, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.