Economic crisis: Cosmos and people - стр. 31

Of course, the causes of the crisis are firstly associated with the violation of financial and economic proportions. They are also connected with the acceleration of socio-economic problems in the society.

In 2007, shortly before the beginning of the active phase of the global financial crisis, the volume of the CDS market exceeded $ 60 trillion. The total amount of dollars of derivatives by that time reached approximately 1200 trillion dollars, which is about 20 times more than the world's Gross Domestic Product. Just like in the crisis of 1929, but on a larger scale. According to many experts, it was the collapse in the financial derivatives market has had caused the global financial crisis. Despite the fact that the CDS market share of all derivatives was less than 5%, the role of that tool in the preparation of the 2008 crisis was great.

"This market [CDS] is not regulated, and the holders of the contracts are in absolute ignorance about their protected counterparts. This is the sword of Damocles that is ready to fall as soon as the bankruptcy starts" – wrote George Soros in April 2008. Almost all the banks on Wall Street were both huge assets and liabilities that were regulated by the instruments of CDS, but some banks ("JP Morgan", "AIG", "Lehman Brothers" and others) had such commitments on the order (orders) that exceeded expectations. Everything was on the verge of collapse. But it was a collapse mechanism and it caused wider.

Reasons were connected with the people who had made such imbalances. Their minds refused to understand the truth at the time of slow cumulative increase of those problems. Graphically it looks like icicles falling under the force of the wind that caused the avalanche, which carried away the village. You can talk about the reason of this phenomenon at the level of reasoning that the piece of ice has to blow out the other side. You can talk about the need to avalanche the events. But it is possible to speculate on the scale of climate change that is happening due to the action of cosmic factors. The village was built in the period when the weather was different. It must endure.

Speaking about the reasons of economic crisis, we often argue at the level where it is necessary to send a particular piece of ice or that bag of money. And yet … However, the causes of these events are bigger. Village should move the social structure of society and it must be changed.

If we analyze the reasons for the level of snowflakes and icicles, even the efforts of the best mathematicians with best goals in this world will not give answers to some questions about what to do, what to change, how to avoid crises in the future. This phenomenon is well known: it is impossible to rationally describe probabilistic system inside the system. For this purpose it is necessary to go to a higher system. Unpromising attempt to set the direction of the river flow through the study of the motion of water molecules is on the river and backwaters, but you should take the vortex pools into consideration. Without it is not the method. Problem can be solved simply: look from the outside or go to the river and feel the slightest fluctuations in water and its temperature.